It wouldn’t be UFC fight week without a little bit of drama. As has especially been the case during the pandemic, UFC fight cards are a very much a “work in progress” right up to the sound of the bell for the first match. Fights constantly are falling out, lately due to COVID-19 issues, injuries, illness, weight cutting issues – you name it. For this week’s UFC Vegas 14 it started early, as headliner Islam Makhachev pulled out of his lightweight fight against Rafael dos Anjos on Sunday night.
But, as is always the case, it’s next man up in the UFC, and the next man in this case will be Paul Felder, who will be stepping out of his planned gig as a UFC color commentator for the event and back into his 4 ounce gloves. However, he last fought in February, and hasn’t officially retired, which makes this not such a strange choice. UFC Fight Night: Felder vs dos Anjos it is, then (at least as of this writing).
‘The Irish Dragon’ is a Live Underdog
‘The Irish Dragon’ enters this short notice fight as an underdog, with MansionBet currently having him on the board at
6/4. Rafael dos Anjos has the striking and grappling stats in his favour, which bodes well for him. Plus, fighters making short notice appearances on fight cards this year have only won 34% of the time, and betting underdogs have only been successful 31% of the time. However, sometimes you must go against the numbers and go with your gut, so I’m picking Felder. The former lightweight champion RDA has only won one fight in his last five, and with this being his 43rd professional fight, seems to have his best days in the rear-view mirror. I think his habit of eating punches to land some of his own is going to get him in trouble against Felder, so the broadcasting professional is the pick.
I’m also going with an underdog in the co main event (I unintentionally picked quite a few dogs for this card, so it could be a very profitable – or disastrous – Saturday night). Khaos Williams is currently sitting at
37/20 for his fight against Abdul Razak Alhassan in what should be an exciting slugfest. There’s a good chance that this contest doesn’t see a second frame, so there’s prop bet opportunities here. Williams is nine years Alhassan’s junior, has four inches of reach on him, and has won seven straight fights. He also has the superior striking stats, which is the top determinant in predicting a winner of a fight. So, I’m really liking the plus money here (Williams via KO at
3/1 is even more favourable).
Even More Live Underdogs!
Do you want more live dogs? Sure, you do, greedy gambler. How about Rhys McKee at
6/4 against Alex Morono? McKee came into the UFC this summer with a lot of hype behind him, built upon his impressive resume on the European scene, including being the BAMMA Lightweight Champion in 2018. He was then unceremoniously fed to the monster that is Khamzat Chimaev in his UFC debut, and lost quickly. I like his chances much better in his sophomore journey to the octagon.
Let’s also let it ride with Jose Quinonez at
23/20 heading into his fight with Louis Smolka. Smolka has been a very inconsistent UFC fighter, as his 7-7 record attests, and has already been released once by the organization. Meanwhile, Quinonez is a very solid 5-3 in the UFC after entering the big leagues from The Ultimate Fighter reality show (he lost in the Latin American finals). Plus, the striking and grappling stats are both in the underdog’s favour, so I think this is a live dog worth investing in.
*All odds correct at time of writing.