UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Hill Preview

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Find out if our UFC tipster can keep his winning streak going with his betting tips for the next UFC Fight Night.

Michelle Waterson fighting in the UFC

Do you like to make money?! Then you came to the right place. This guy right here (me!) is on a hot streak with his UFC betting tips. Going 13-2 overall for the past two UFC events has me feeling like an MMA betting savant. But they say pride comes before a fall.

The UFC has another event this Saturday that I can prove my mettle on – UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Hill, live from the UFC Apex gym facility in Las Vegas. The card has been weakened somewhat, with the original main event of Thiago Santos vs Glover Teixeira falling out after Teixeira contracted COVID-19. In steps the original co-main event, now promoted to a five-round main event, between women’s strawweight contenders Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill.

Fan Favourites in Action

These two fan favourites match up quite evenly for this contest, with ‘The Karate Hottie’ Waterson coming in as a slight betting favourite at 1/1 (‘Overkill’ Hill is at 20/27). Let’s take a quick look at how the two match up in the key factors for predicting the winner of a fight – age, reach/size, striking, grappling, and who the bookies have pegged as the favorite.

Youth, relatively speaking, is on Waterson’s side, but only slightly – she’s 34 while Hill is 35. However, Hill will have a two-inch reach advantage, which isn’t much considering Waterson is used to being quite undersized in UFC fights – she’s better suited to the 105-pound (atomweight) weight class, which the UFC doesn’t offer at this point.

Tight Bout to Call

For striking, the numbers make it look like it should be a very even affair on the feet. Hill lands more strikes, but Waterson is more accurate. Waterson gets hit less, but she gets hit more than she lands. Additionally, Hill’s striking defense % is much higher. She also is a more powerful striker, finished five of her 12 pro wins via strikes (Waterson only has three knockouts out of 17 wins).

As for grappling, it’s advantage ‘Karate Hottie’ (which is ironic given her nickname). Waterson lands four times the number of takedowns per fight than Hill does, she’s far more accurate on her attempts, and hunts for submissions while Hill does not. If Waterson can get this fight to the ground, which isn’t a given considering Hill thwarts 72% of takedown attempts, the fight should be hers.

Waterson’s grappling, high level experience advantage, and the fact that the bookies like her more makes her my choice in this fight. But it really could go either way. Yes, I’m hedging.

Superior Striker

In the co-main event, I like another 1/1 fighter on the MansionBet board – Ottman Azaitar. He’ll be fighting Khama Worthy, who is the favourite at 20/27. I like Azaitar due to being four years younger than Worthy, his superior striking ability, and his dangerous finishing power. He’s finished all but one of his 12 pro victims, and Worthy has been knocked out five times. Azaitar via KO at 9/5 might be worth a little splash of money.

If you like your bets of the “prop” variety, I like another KO one. Mike Rodriguez beating Ed Herman via KO is currently at 20/27. All 11 of Slo Mike’s pro victories have come via stoppage, with nine of those being (T)KOs. He has eight inches of reach over Herman, so he should be able to get his strikes off. Also, Herman is turning 40 in a few weeks and this will be pro fight number 41 for him, so his chin is bound to be deteriorating a bit. I’m going with the younger, bigger, harder hitting fighter to win this one, and going with him via KO for even bigger money.

Jeff Fox offers expert insight into the world of MMA & UFC betting from his years of experience in the industry. His work has appeared in publications such as SI.com, St Louis Post-Dispatch, SLAM, Fighters Only Magazine & FIGHT!, among many others. Jeff shares his UFC betting tips with MansionBet readers on a weekly basis.
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