King of Clay to Be Avoided in Madrid

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With Novak Djokovic not defending his ATP Madrid title this year, who will be lifting the trophy come May 9th?

Novak Djokovic

ATP Madrid reigning champion Novak Djokovic will be missing along with Roger Federer from this year’s tournament in the Spanish capital but there is nonetheless plenty of quality to keep an eye on in both halves of the draw in the Spanish capital.

Rafael Nadal beat Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4 6-7 7-5 in the Barcelona Open final last month and with the pair in opposite halves of the draw, the betting suggests they could once again be the players to beat, but there is certainly value elsewhere.

King of Clay Not as Effective in Madrid

Nadal was sharp in his recent Barcelona Open triumph, dropping only two sets on his way to the title, but the ATP Madrid certainly has not been his favourite clay-court event.

While the Spaniard has won double-digit titles at both the French Open and Monte Carlo Masters, in which he only made the quarter-finals this year, he has won this tournament only four times in 11 attempts.

In his latest effort – the 2019 ATP Madrid – Nadal was knocked out by Tsitsipas in the last four and, although he cannot meet the Greek until the final this time around, punters should not rush to back him to lift the trophy.

He will face plenty of resistance in his half of the Madrid draw which will feature Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Dominic Thiem and Andrey Rublev and is not worth backing at only 10/11 to lift the trophy.

Medvedev Looks the Best Outside Bet

There is no denying Tsitsipas has made a great start to the 2021 season, having downed Andrey Rublev in the final of the Monte Carlo Masters in April, but too often he has lacked the edge to win when it matters.

The Greek, who is 4/1 to win this event, has lost in the finals of the Miami Open and Barcelona Open this year and missed a great opportunity when falling to defeat at the semi-final stage of the Australian Open earlier this campaign.

And on that occasion he was beaten by Russian Daniil Medvedev, who is also enjoying a promising 2021.

Medvedev was out of action with coronavirus in Monte Carlo recently but appears to be fit and ready to hit the court in Madrid.

After winning the ATP Cup and making the final of the Australian Open in February, Medvedev claimed the Open 13 in Marseille and put in some good performances on his way to the quarter-finals of the Miami Open.

Medevedev is renowned as a dangerous player on hard courts but there is no saying he cannot translate that success to clay.

The 25-year-old from Moscow reached the Barcelona Open final in 2019 and looks an excellent bet at 20/1 to go all the way in Madrid. Other players above Medvedev in the betting are Andrey Rublev at 16/1 and Dominic Thiem at 7/1.

*All odds correct at time of writing

Liam Flin is an occasional contributor to the MansionBet Blog. He holds a keen interest football, cricket, cycling and esports. See his insights & tips here.

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